Brunei vs Lebanon Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.61 expected goals for Brunei and 3.22 for Lebanon, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Lebanon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lebanon win

86.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.61 – 3.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Brunei home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lebanon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 4% / 9% / 87% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.61 goals for Brunei and 3.22 for Lebanon, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 44%, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Brunei win4%

Draw9%

Lebanon win87%

Double chance 1X

13%

Double chance 12

91%

Double chance X2

96%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

0–312.0%
0–211.2%
0–49.7%
1–37.4%
0–17.0%

Recent form

Brunei

2026-06-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Timor-Leste · 1-3 (L)
2026-06-02T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Timor-Leste · 0-3 (L)
2026-03-31T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bhutan · 1-2 (L)
2025-11-18T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Lebanon · 0-3 (L)
2025-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Yemen · 0-9 (L)

Lebanon

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Asian Cup - Qualification table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tajikistan	6	4	2	0	11	14
2	Philippines	6	4	2	0	10	14
3	Maldives	6	1	0	5	-10	3
4	Timor-Leste	6	1	0	5	-11	3
1	Yemen	6	4	2	0	19	14
2	Lebanon	6	4	1	1	12	13
3	Bhutan	6	1	1	4	-12	4
4	Brunei	6	1	0	5	-19	3
1	Singapore	6	4	2	0	4	14
2	Hong Kong	6	2	2	2	0	8
3	Bangladesh	6	1	2	3	-2	5
4	India	6	1	2	3	-2	5
1	Thailand	6	5	0	1	11	15
2	Turkmenistan	6	4	0	2	4	12
3	Sri Lanka	6	3	0	3	-1	9
4	Chinese Taipei	6	0	0	6	-14	0
1	Syria	6	6	0	0	19	18
2	Myanmar	6	4	0	2	-3	12
3	Afghanistan	6	0	2	4	-7	2
4	Pakistan	6	0	2	4	-9	2
1	Vietnam	6	6	0	0	15	18
2	Malaysia	6	3	0	3	0	9
3	Laos	6	2	0	4	-12	6
4	Nepal	6	1	0	5	-3	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lebanon win, at 86.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.