Hassanal Bolkiah National Stadium · Analysis updated 14:47 UTC
Brunei vs Timor-Leste Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Brunei and 1.47 for Timor-Leste, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives Brunei the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brunei win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brunei home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Timor-Leste away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Brunei
- 2026-06-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Timor-Leste · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-02T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Timor-Leste · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-31T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bhutan · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-11-18T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Lebanon · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Yemen · 0-9 (L)
Timor-Leste
- 2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Cambodia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Indonesia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-7 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-09T09:00:00.000Z · Brunei 1-3 Timor-Leste (ASEAN Championship)
- 2026-06-02T12:15:00.000Z · Brunei 0-3 Timor-Leste (ASEAN Championship)
- 2024-10-15T12:30:00.000Z · Brunei 0-0 Timor-Leste (ASEAN Championship)
- 2024-10-08T12:30:00.000Z · Brunei 0-1 Timor-Leste (ASEAN Championship)
- 2022-11-08T06:30:00.000Z · Brunei 0-1 Timor-Leste (AFF Championship)
- 2022-11-05T07:45:00.000Z · Brunei 6-2 Timor-Leste (AFF Championship)
- 2018-09-08T12:15:00.000Z · Brunei 1-0 Timor-Leste (AFF Championship)
- 2018-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · Brunei 1-3 Timor-Leste (AFF Championship)
ASEAN Championship table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brunei win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.