Brunswick City vs Melbourne Srbija Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Brunswick City and 1.18 for Melbourne Srbija, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Brunswick City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Brunswick City win

50.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Brunswick City home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Melbourne Srbija away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brunswick City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Brunswick City and 1.18 for Melbourne Srbija, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Brunswick City win50%

Draw24%

Melbourne Srbija win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.2%
2–19.6%
1–09.5%
2–08.2%
1–26.6%

Recent form

Brunswick City

2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Srbija · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · A vs North Sunshine Eagles · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-15T07:15:00.000Z · H vs North Geelong Warriors · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Langwarrin · 4-3 (W)
2026-07-24T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Western United II · 5-0 (W)

Melbourne Srbija

2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Brunswick City · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-22T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bulleen Lions · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Brunswick Juventus FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T05:00:00.000Z · H vs North Geelong Warriors · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-03T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Victory II · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Victoria NPL 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brunswick Juventus FC	26	17	2	7	18	53
2	Melbourne Knights	26	16	4	6	25	52
3	Northcote City	26	15	4	7	15	49
4	Bulleen Lions	26	14	6	6	18	48
5	Melbourne Victory II	26	14	4	8	23	46
6	Eltham Redbacks FC	26	11	6	9	17	39
7	Melbourne Srbija	26	12	3	11	4	39
8	Brunswick City	26	10	3	13	-2	33
9	North Geelong Warriors	26	10	2	14	-15	32
10	Langwarrin	26	8	6	12	-8	30
11	Manningham United Blues	26	9	3	14	-20	30
12	North Sunshine Eagles	26	7	5	14	-5	26
13	Western United II	26	8	1	17	-26	25
14	Port Melbourne	26	4	5	17	-44	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Brunswick City win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.