Stadion Wankdorf · Referee Sandro Schärer, Switzerland · Analysis updated 03:52 UTC
BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 0.92 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives BSC Young Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
BSC Young Boys win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BSC Young Boys home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Basel 1893 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.4%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.70 (model 49.0% vs market 34.1%, edge +14.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.70 | 34.1% | 49.0% | 2.04 | +14.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.5% | 82.0% | 1.22 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.55 | 59.6% | 59.9% | 1.67 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 22.0% | 22.1% | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.5% | 18.0% | 5.56 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.5% | 77.9% | 1.28 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.30 | 41.0% | 40.1% | 2.49 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 65.9% | 51.0% | 1.96 | -14.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
BSC Young Boys
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Aarau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 4-2 (W)
FC Basel 1893
- 2026-10-16T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Stade Nyonnais · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Vaduz · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Winterthur · 3-7 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luzern · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 3-3 FC Basel 1893 (Super League)
- 2026-05-10T14:30:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 3-0 FC Basel 1893 (Super League)
- 2026-04-04T18:30:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 3-3 FC Basel 1893 (Super League)
- 2025-11-02T15:30:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 0-0 FC Basel 1893 (Super League)
- 2025-08-06T18:30:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 1-4 FC Basel 1893 (Super League)
- 2025-05-18T12:15:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 6-2 FC Basel 1893 (Super League)
- 2025-03-16T15:30:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 2-1 FC Basel 1893 (Super League)
- 2024-10-30T19:30:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 3-2 FC Basel 1893 (Super League)
- 2024-10-06T14:30:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 0-1 FC Basel 1893 (Super League)
- 2024-03-10T15:30:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 5-1 FC Basel 1893 (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 31 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Zurich | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 5 | Servette FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | FC ST. Gallen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 9 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BSC Young Boys win, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.