Stadion Wankdorf · Analysis updated 02:42 UTC
BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.49 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives BSC Young Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.
Model pick
BSC Young Boys to Win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
2.48 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–05.8%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates BSC Young Boys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.48 goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.49 for FC Basel 1893, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 71%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
BSC Young Boys to Win is the headline pick at 59% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
BSC Young Boys
FC Basel 1893
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 3 | FC ST. Gallen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | FC Sion | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Lausanne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Servette FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Zurich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Grasshoppers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | FC Luzern | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | FC Vaduz | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.