Stadion Wankdorf · Referee Desiree Grundbacher, Switzerland · Analysis updated 02:01 UTC
BSC Young Boys vs FC Vaduz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.30 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.63 for FC Vaduz, a combined total of 4.93. That distribution gives BSC Young Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
BSC Young Boys win
69.9% probability
Expected goals
3.30 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BSC Young Boys home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Vaduz away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.1%
- 2–16.4%
- 4–15.8%
- 3–25.7%
- 2–25.2%
Recent form
BSC Young Boys
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Aarau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 4-2 (W)
FC Vaduz
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Basel 1893 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Thun · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lausanne · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 4-2 FC Vaduz (Super League)
- 2024-01-13T12:00:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 3-2 FC Vaduz (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-01-14T00:00:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 0-0 FC Vaduz (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-05-11T16:15:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 2-0 FC Vaduz (Super League)
- 2021-03-06T17:15:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 1-1 FC Vaduz (Super League)
- 2021-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 0-0 FC Vaduz (Super League)
- 2020-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 1-0 FC Vaduz (Super League)
- 2017-05-17T17:45:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 0-1 FC Vaduz (Super League)
- 2017-04-02T11:45:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 3-2 FC Vaduz (Super League)
- 2016-10-30T12:45:00.000Z · BSC Young Boys 5-0 FC Vaduz (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 31 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Zurich | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 5 | Servette FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | FC ST. Gallen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 9 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BSC Young Boys win, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.