BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Hertha BSC II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for BSG Chemie Leipzig and 0.96 for Hertha BSC II, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives BSG Chemie Leipzig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

BSG Chemie Leipzig win

51.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 0.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

BSG Chemie Leipzig home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hertha BSC II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BSG Chemie Leipzig to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for BSG Chemie Leipzig and 0.96 for Hertha BSC II, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

BSG Chemie Leipzig win51%

Draw26%

Hertha BSC II win24%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.6%
1–112.1%
2–09.7%
2–19.4%
0–08.1%

Recent form

BSG Chemie Leipzig

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemnitzer FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tasmania Berlin · 5-2 (W)

Hertha BSC II

2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Zwickau · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chemnitzer FC	13	9	3	1	22	30
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	8	4	1	23	28
3	Hallescher FC	13	8	4	1	11	28
4	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	13	8	1	4	11	25
5	BFC Dynamo	13	7	4	2	9	25
6	Altglienicke	13	7	3	3	7	24
7	Greifswalder FC	13	6	4	3	6	22
8	Erzgebirge Aue	13	6	3	4	2	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	5	4	4	-2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	4	5	4	0	17
11	Magdeburg II	13	5	1	7	-2	16
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	3	4	6	-9	13
13	BFC Preussen	13	2	5	6	-5	11
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Hertha BSC II	13	2	4	7	-13	10
16	RSV Eintracht	13	2	3	8	-16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	2	2	9	-19	8
18	Luckenwalde	13	2	0	11	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is BSG Chemie Leipzig win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.