· Analysis updated 09:51 UTC
Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Bsk Bijelo Brdo and 1.10 for Dinamo Zagreb U21, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Bsk Bijelo Brdo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.6% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bsk Bijelo Brdo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Bsk Bijelo Brdo and 1.10 for Dinamo Zagreb U21, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 54.9% | 57.6% | 1.74 | +2.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 29.4% | 30.5% | 3.28 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.65 | 54.8% | 55.7% | 1.80 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 72.5% | 73.0% | 1.37 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 42.1% | 42.5% | 2.35 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 45.2% | 44.3% | 2.26 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.5% | 27.1% | 3.69 | -1.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 72.5% | 69.6% | 1.44 | -2.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlovac 1919 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Osijek · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dubrava Zagreb · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hrvace · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kustosija · 2-1 (W)
Dinamo Zagreb U21
- 2026-10-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovac 1919 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Ždralovi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dugopolje · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T13:45:00.000Z · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb U21 (First NL)
First NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Croatia Zmijavci | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | HNK Cibalia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Segesta Sisak | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Sesvete | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Dugopolje | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Karlovac 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Vukovar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Opatija | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Hrvace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Kustosija | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.