Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Orijent 1919 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Bsk Bijelo Brdo and 0.77 for Orijent 1919, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives Bsk Bijelo Brdo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bsk Bijelo Brdo win

48.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bsk Bijelo Brdo home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Orijent 1919 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bsk Bijelo Brdo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 29% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Bsk Bijelo Brdo and 0.77 for Orijent 1919, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Bsk Bijelo Brdo win49%

Draw29%

Orijent 1919 win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.5%
0–013.0%
1–112.7%
2–010.6%
0–110.0%

Recent form

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlovac 1919 · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Osijek · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dubrava Zagreb · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hrvace · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kustosija · 2-1 (W)

Orijent 1919

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hrvace · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Opatija · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Jadran LP · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Ždralovi · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Croatia Zmijavci · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First NL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jadran LP	7	4	2	1	5	14
2	Croatia Zmijavci	7	4	1	2	5	13
3	HNK Cibalia	7	3	4	0	3	13
4	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	7	4	1	2	2	13
5	Segesta Sisak	7	3	2	2	1	11
6	Mladost Ždralovi	7	3	2	2	0	11
7	Sesvete	7	3	0	4	1	9
8	Dinamo Zagreb U21	7	3	0	4	0	9
9	Dugopolje	7	2	3	2	0	9
10	Dubrava Zagreb	7	2	2	3	-1	8
11	Karlovac 1919	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Orijent 1919	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Vukovar	7	2	2	3	-3	8
14	Opatija	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Hrvace	7	2	1	4	-5	7
16	Kustosija	7	1	3	3	-2	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bsk Bijelo Brdo win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.