Estadio Américo Montanini · Referee C. Ortega · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Bucaramanga and 1.25 for Independiente Medellin, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Bucaramanga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bucaramanga home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente Medellin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
Bucaramanga
- 2026-10-04T23:10:00.000Z · H vs Junior · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:15:00.000Z · A vs Once Caldas · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:05:00.000Z · H vs Internacional de Bogota · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Pereira · 3-1 (W)
Independiente Medellin
- 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T01:05:00.000Z · H vs Millonarios · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T01:20:00.000Z · A vs Junior · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaguares · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Bucaramanga · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z · Bucaramanga 2-2 Independiente Medellin (Primera A)
- 2026-03-01T01:30:00.000Z · Bucaramanga 2-1 Independiente Medellin (Primera A)
- 2026-01-13T14:00:00.000Z · Bucaramanga 1-3 Independiente Medellin (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-10-29T23:10:00.000Z · Bucaramanga 0-3 Independiente Medellin (Primera A)
- 2025-05-10T01:30:00.000Z · Bucaramanga 2-0 Independiente Medellin (Primera A)
- 2024-11-04T01:30:00.000Z · Bucaramanga 2-3 Independiente Medellin (Primera A)
- 2024-04-14T21:10:00.000Z · Bucaramanga 0-1 Independiente Medellin (Primera A)
- 2023-09-26T01:35:00.000Z · Bucaramanga 0-2 Independiente Medellin (Primera A)
- 2023-04-16T19:00:00.000Z · Bucaramanga 1-2 Independiente Medellin (Primera A)
- 2022-10-20T01:05:00.000Z · Bucaramanga 2-1 Independiente Medellin (Primera A)
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | -17 | 10 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 14 | Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Junior | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.