Bucaspor 1928 vs Gaziemirspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bucaspor 1928 and 1.48 for Gaziemirspor, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Gaziemirspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bucaspor 1928 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gaziemirspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Bucaspor 1928 and 1.48 for Gaziemirspor, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Bucaspor 1928 win37%

Draw25%

Gaziemirspor win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.6%
1–28.5%
2–18.2%
0–18.1%
1–07.8%

Recent form

Bucaspor 1928

2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kepezspor · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gaziemirspor · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Etimesgut SK · 0-2 (L)

Gaziemirspor

2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karsiyaka · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Denizli İYG · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bucaspor 1928 · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Söke 1970 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayvalikgucu · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Lig - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nilüfer Belediye	7	5	2	0	9	17
2	Bursa Yıldırımspor	7	4	3	0	5	15
3	Eskişehirspor	7	4	2	1	13	14
4	Bigaspor	7	4	2	1	6	14
5	Etimesgut SK	7	4	2	1	6	14
6	Ayvalikgucu	7	4	2	1	5	14
7	Balıkesirspor	7	4	1	2	4	13
8	Anadolu Üniversitesi	7	3	3	1	6	12
9	Karsiyaka	7	2	3	2	0	9
10	Gaziemirspor	7	3	0	4	-1	9
11	Altay	7	2	3	2	-2	9
12	Söke 1970	7	1	4	2	0	7
13	Uşak Spor	7	1	3	3	-2	6
14	Bucaspor 1928	7	2	0	5	-5	6
15	Alanya 1221 FK	7	1	1	5	-12	4
16	Denizli İYG	7	0	3	4	-10	3
17	Akşehirspor	7	1	0	6	-13	3
18	Kepezspor	7	0	2	5	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.