· Analysis updated 17:47 UTC
Buchbach vs Augsburg II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.36 expected goals for Buchbach and 1.53 for Augsburg II, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Buchbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Buchbach win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
2.36 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Buchbach home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Augsburg II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Buchbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.36 goals for Buchbach and 1.53 for Augsburg II, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.4%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 2–05.7%
Recent form
Buchbach
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eltersdorf · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Memmingen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Schweinfurt 05 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München II · 2-0 (W)
Augsburg II
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nürnberg II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aubstadt · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wacker Burghausen · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Greuther Fürth II · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Bayern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memmingen | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| 2 | Buchbach | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | SpVgg Unterhaching | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | TSV 1860 München | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Augsburg II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 6 | Illertissen | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Bayreuth | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Vilzing | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 9 | Eichstätt | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Wacker Burghausen | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Nürnberg II | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 |
| 12 | Bayern München II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Eltersdorf | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Schwaben Augsburg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 16 | Greuther Fürth II | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Ansbach | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 12 |
| 18 | Aubstadt | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 19 | Landsberg | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Buchbach win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.