· Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
Buchbach vs Bayreuth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Buchbach and 1.28 for Bayreuth, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Buchbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Buchbach win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Buchbach home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayreuth away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Buchbach
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eltersdorf · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Memmingen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Schweinfurt 05 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München II · 2-0 (W)
Bayreuth
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Landsberg · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eltersdorf · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aubstadt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ansbach · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · Buchbach 2-1 Bayreuth (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2026-03-13T18:00:00.000Z · Buchbach 1-1 Bayreuth (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2025-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · Buchbach 0-2 Bayreuth (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2024-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · Buchbach 4-1 Bayreuth (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2024-07-20T12:00:00.000Z · Buchbach 0-2 Bayreuth (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2024-03-30T13:00:00.000Z · Buchbach 2-0 Bayreuth (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2023-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · Buchbach 0-1 Bayreuth (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2022-05-21T12:00:00.000Z · Buchbach 5-2 Bayreuth (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2021-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · Buchbach 1-1 Bayreuth (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2019-11-23T13:00:00.000Z · Buchbach 3-1 Bayreuth (Regionalliga - Bayern)
Regionalliga - Bayern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memmingen | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 30 |
| 2 | Buchbach | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 28 |
| 3 | SpVgg Unterhaching | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | TSV 1860 München | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Illertissen | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Bayreuth | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| 7 | Vilzing | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Augsburg II | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 9 | Eichstätt | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Wacker Burghausen | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 |
| 11 | Nürnberg II | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 19 |
| 12 | Bayern München II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Eltersdorf | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 14 | Schwaben Augsburg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 15 |
| 15 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 16 | Greuther Fürth II | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 13 |
| 17 | Ansbach | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 12 |
| 18 | Aubstadt | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -7 | 10 |
| 19 | Landsberg | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Buchbach win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.