Buchbach vs FC Schweinfurt 05 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Buchbach and 1.22 for FC Schweinfurt 05, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives Buchbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Buchbach win

65.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Buchbach home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Schweinfurt 05 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Buchbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Buchbach and 1.22 for FC Schweinfurt 05, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Buchbach win65%

Draw18%

FC Schweinfurt 05 win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.2%
3–17.7%
2–07.5%
1–17.4%
3–06.3%

Recent form

Buchbach

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eltersdorf · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Memmingen · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Schweinfurt 05 · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München II · 2-0 (W)

FC Schweinfurt 05

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchbach · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Illertissen · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eichstätt · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nürnberg II · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Bayern table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Memmingen	16	10	3	3	10	33
2	Buchbach	16	8	5	3	7	29
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	15	7	7	1	10	28
4	TSV 1860 München	15	7	6	2	12	27
5	Augsburg II	15	7	3	5	-1	24
6	Illertissen	15	6	5	4	8	23
7	Bayreuth	15	7	1	7	8	22
8	Vilzing	14	5	6	3	1	21
9	Eichstätt	16	6	3	7	-6	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	15	5	5	5	7	20
11	Nürnberg II	14	6	2	6	6	20
12	Bayern München II	13	5	4	4	4	19
13	Eltersdorf	15	4	6	5	-1	18
14	Schwaben Augsburg	15	5	3	7	-9	18
15	FC Schweinfurt 05	15	4	5	6	-10	17
16	Greuther Fürth II	15	3	4	8	-6	13
17	Ansbach	15	3	3	9	-17	12
18	Aubstadt	15	2	5	8	-7	11
19	Landsberg	15	1	6	8	-16	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Buchbach win, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.