Bucheon Stadium · Referee Dong Jun Lee, South Korea · Analysis updated 17:13 UTC
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.24 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bucheon FC 1995 home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 31% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.24 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–28.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 53.6% vs market 45.3%, edge +8.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 53.6% | 1.87 | +8.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 31.3% | 31.4% | 3.18 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.57 | 59.5% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.25 | 40.3% | 40.3% | 2.48 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.8% | 71.7% | 1.39 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.4% | 28.2% | 3.55 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 68.7% | 68.5% | 1.46 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 46.4% | 2.16 | -8.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bucheon FC 1995
- 2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Hyundai FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeju United FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Incheon United · 1-2 (L)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gangwon FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Pohang Steelers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gwangju FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Hyundai FC · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 32 | 67 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 51 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 49 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 33 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Incheon United | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 46 |
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 46 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -9 | 42 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 33 | 5 | 19 | 9 | -8 | 34 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | -15 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 33 | 3 | 12 | 18 | -39 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.