Bucheon Stadium · Referee Yong-jun Shin, South Korea · Analysis updated 10:02 UTC
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 0.98 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Bucheon FC 1995 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bucheon FC 1995 win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bucheon FC 1995 home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gwangju FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.2%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.3%
Recent form
Bucheon FC 1995
- 2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Hyundai FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeju United FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Incheon United · 1-2 (L)
Gwangju FC
- 2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Anyang · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeju United FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Seoul · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · Bucheon FC 1995 0-0 Gwangju FC (K League 1)
- 2026-04-11T07:30:00.000Z · Bucheon FC 1995 1-0 Gwangju FC (K League 1)
- 2025-08-27T10:30:00.000Z · Bucheon FC 1995 1-2 Gwangju FC (FA Cup)
- 2025-08-20T10:30:00.000Z · Bucheon FC 1995 0-2 Gwangju FC (FA Cup)
- 2024-06-19T10:00:00.000Z · Bucheon FC 1995 2-3 Gwangju FC (FA Cup)
- 2022-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · Bucheon FC 1995 2-1 Gwangju FC (K League 2)
- 2022-07-05T10:00:00.000Z · Bucheon FC 1995 1-2 Gwangju FC (K League 2)
- 2022-05-25T10:00:00.000Z · Bucheon FC 1995 2-1 Gwangju FC (FA Cup)
- 2022-04-23T07:00:00.000Z · Bucheon FC 1995 0-1 Gwangju FC (K League 2)
- 2022-03-20T04:30:00.000Z · Bucheon FC 1995 2-0 Gwangju FC (K League 2)
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 32 | 67 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 51 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 49 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 33 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Incheon United | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 46 |
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 46 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -9 | 42 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 33 | 5 | 19 | 9 | -8 | 34 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | -15 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 33 | 3 | 12 | 18 | -39 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bucheon FC 1995 win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.