Buchholz vs Paloma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Buchholz and 3.41 for Paloma, a combined total of 5.85. That distribution gives Paloma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 92% for over 2.5 goals and 88% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Paloma win

57.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.45 – 3.41

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Buchholz home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paloma away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paloma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 27% / 16% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Buchholz and 3.41 for Paloma, a combined 5.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Buchholz win27%

Draw16%

Paloma win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals92%

Over 3.5 goals83%

Both teams to score88%

Correct score

2–35.7%
2–25.0%
2–44.8%
1–34.6%
3–34.6%

Recent form

Buchholz

2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nikola Tesla · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-29T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Teutonia Ottensen · 3-6 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Norderstedt II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Harksheide · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Altona 93 · 5-5 (D)

Paloma

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchholz · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-04T08:45:00.000Z · H vs ETSV Hamburg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Teutonia Ottensen · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tus Dassendorf · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Hamburg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paloma	13	9	2	2	13	29
2	Victoria Hamburg	13	7	5	1	11	26
3	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	13	7	3	3	6	24
4	Tus Dassendorf	12	7	2	3	16	23
5	Niendorfer TSV	13	7	2	4	3	23
6	Altona 93	12	6	3	3	5	21
7	HT16	12	6	2	4	13	20
8	Pinneberg	12	6	2	4	6	20
9	Süderelbe	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Sasel	12	5	2	5	-2	17
11	HEBC	12	5	0	7	-3	15
12	Buchholz	12	4	3	5	-9	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	12	4	2	6	-1	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	13	3	3	7	-11	12
15	Nikola Tesla	12	3	2	7	-2	11
16	Concordia	13	3	2	8	-15	11
17	Harksheide	12	1	5	6	-11	8
18	Norderstedt II	13	2	1	10	-22	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Paloma win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 88% and over 2.5 goals at 92%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.