Victoria Park · Analysis updated 14:54 UTC
Buckie Thistle vs Lossiemouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Buckie Thistle and 1.43 for Lossiemouth, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Buckie Thistle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Buckie Thistle win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Buckie Thistle home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lossiemouth away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.2%
- 2–06.1%
Recent form
Buckie Thistle
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Deveronvale · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Clachnacuddin · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lossiemouth · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brechin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nairn County · 1-3 (L)
Lossiemouth
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Banks O' Dee · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Buckie Thistle · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Musselburgh Athletic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wick Academy · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Formartine United · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 1-1 Lossiemouth (Football League - Highland League)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 2-1 Lossiemouth (Football League - Highland League)
- 2025-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 3-1 Lossiemouth (Football League - Highland League)
- 2024-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 2-1 Lossiemouth (Football League - Highland League)
- 2024-03-09T15:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 1-2 Lossiemouth (Football League - Highland League)
- 2024-02-28T20:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 3-0 Lossiemouth (Football League - Highland League)
- 2022-11-26T15:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 2-1 Lossiemouth (Football League - Highland League)
- 2022-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 2-1 Lossiemouth (FA Cup)
- 2022-08-06T14:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 6-0 Lossiemouth (Football League - Highland League)
- 2021-11-27T15:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 5-0 Lossiemouth (Football League - Highland League)
Football League - Highland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brora Rangers | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 42 | 39 |
| 2 | Inverurie Loco Works | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Formartine United | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
| 4 | Fraserburgh | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 26 |
| 5 | Banks O' Dee | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 6 | Clachnacuddin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Huntly | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 8 | Strathspey Thistle | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | Forres Mechanics | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 21 |
| 10 | Nairn County | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 | Buckie Thistle | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 19 |
| 12 | Turriff United | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 19 |
| 13 | Deveronvale | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 18 |
| 14 | Keith | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 18 |
| 15 | Lossiemouth | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 18 |
| 16 | Invergordon | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -21 | 13 |
| 17 | Wick Academy | 15 | 3 | 0 | 12 | -27 | 9 |
| 18 | Rothes | 14 | 1 | 0 | 13 | -50 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Buckie Thistle win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.