Victoria Park · Analysis updated 16:51 UTC
Buckie Thistle vs Nairn County Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Buckie Thistle and 1.15 for Nairn County, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Buckie Thistle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Buckie Thistle win
70.1% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Buckie Thistle home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Buckie Thistle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 16% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Buckie Thistle and 1.15 for Nairn County, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–07.0%
- 1–16.6%
Recent form
Buckie Thistle
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Deveronvale · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Clachnacuddin · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lossiemouth · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brechin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nairn County · 1-3 (L)
Nairn County
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fraserburgh · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turriff United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brora Rangers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Strathspey Thistle · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gretna 2008 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 1-0 Nairn County (Football League - Highland League)
- 2025-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 1-0 Nairn County (Football League - Highland League)
- 2025-03-01T15:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 2-0 Nairn County (Football League - Highland League)
- 2024-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 2-1 Nairn County (Football League - Highland League)
- 2024-02-03T15:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 0-3 Nairn County (Football League - Highland League)
- 2023-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 6-0 Nairn County (Football League - Highland League)
- 2023-03-25T15:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 3-0 Nairn County (Football League - Highland League)
- 2023-01-14T15:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 3-1 Nairn County (Football League - Highland League)
- 2022-02-05T15:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 4-1 Nairn County (Football League - Highland League)
- 2021-11-24T20:00:00.000Z · Buckie Thistle 4-1 Nairn County (Football League - Highland League)
Football League - Highland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brora Rangers | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 42 | 39 |
| 2 | Inverurie Loco Works | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Formartine United | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
| 4 | Fraserburgh | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 5 | Banks O' Dee | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 6 | Clachnacuddin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Huntly | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 8 | Strathspey Thistle | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | Forres Mechanics | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 21 |
| 10 | Deveronvale | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 | Nairn County | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 12 | Turriff United | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -1 | 20 |
| 13 | Buckie Thistle | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 19 |
| 14 | Keith | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 18 |
| 15 | Lossiemouth | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 18 |
| 16 | Invergordon | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -21 | 13 |
| 17 | Wick Academy | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -27 | 10 |
| 18 | Rothes | 15 | 1 | 0 | 14 | -53 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Buckie Thistle win, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.