· Analysis updated 07:14 UTC
Budaörs vs Érdi VSE Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Budaörs and 2.55 for Érdi VSE, a combined total of 4.64. That distribution gives Érdi VSE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Érdi VSE win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 2.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Budaörs home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Érdi VSE away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Érdi VSE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 32% / 19% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Budaörs and 2.55 for Érdi VSE, a combined 4.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.6%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–35.6%
- 2–15.4%
Recent form
Budaörs
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sárbogárd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Siofok · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Budafoki LC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs PTE-PEAC · 1-6 (L)
Érdi VSE
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sárbogárd · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pécsi MFC · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 34 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Ferencváros II | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Iváncsa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Majosi | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Budafoki LC | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | PTE-PEAC | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Érdi VSE | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Siofok | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 12 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -40 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Érdi VSE win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.