Büderich vs SF Baumberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Büderich and 2.50 for SF Baumberg, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives SF Baumberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SF Baumberg win

49.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 2.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Büderich home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SF Baumberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 32% / 19% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Büderich and 2.50 for SF Baumberg, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Büderich win32%

Draw19%

SF Baumberg win50%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

1–26.9%
2–26.9%
1–35.8%
2–35.8%
1–15.6%

Recent form

Büderich

2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SF Baumberg · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holzheimer SG · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC St. Tönis · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs BW Dingden · 0-3 (L)

SF Baumberg

Head-to-head

2026-06-07T13:30:00.000Z · Büderich 3-1 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2025-12-13T13:30:00.000Z · Büderich 2-1 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2025-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · Büderich 1-1 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2024-11-03T14:30:00.000Z · Büderich 5-0 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2024-05-08T17:45:00.000Z · Büderich 0-3 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2023-11-19T13:30:00.000Z · Büderich 2-3 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Schonnebeck	10	8	2	0	24	26
2	SSVg Velbert	10	8	0	2	11	24
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	10	6	2	2	12	20
4	SC St. Tönis	10	5	2	3	5	17
5	Sonsbeck	10	4	4	2	4	16
6	SF Baumberg	10	4	4	2	2	16
7	BW Dingden	10	5	1	4	0	16
8	Monheim	10	4	3	3	6	15
9	Solingen-Wald	10	5	0	5	-4	15
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	10	4	2	4	9	14
11	Germania Ratingen	10	3	5	2	1	14
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	Wuppertaler SV	10	4	1	5	5	13
14	Scherpenberg	10	2	2	6	-13	8
15	Büderich	10	1	4	5	-14	7
16	SW Essen	10	1	3	6	-11	6
17	Meerbusch	10	1	2	7	-14	5
18	Holzheimer SG	10	1	1	8	-22	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SF Baumberg win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.