· Analysis updated 17:56 UTC
Budoni vs Albalonga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Budoni and 2.09 for Albalonga, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Albalonga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Albalonga win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 2.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Budoni home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Albalonga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Albalonga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 30% / 21% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Budoni and 2.09 for Albalonga, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Budoni
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paganese · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Monastir · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Venafro · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Anzio · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gelbison · 1-2 (L)
Albalonga
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Anzio · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Monastir · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarrabus Ogliastra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aranova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Città di Anagni · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone G table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Monastir | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Trastevere | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 5 | Paganese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Unipomezia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Ossese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Albalonga | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Aranova | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Anzio | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Afragolese | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Città di Anagni | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Gelbison | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Venafro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Budoni | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Latte Dolce | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Atletico Lodigiani | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Albalonga win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.