· Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
Bugesera vs Marines Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Bugesera and 0.81 for Marines, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Bugesera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.0% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bugesera home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Marines away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bugesera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 30% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Bugesera and 0.81 for Marines, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–09.6%
Recent form
Bugesera
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rutsiro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mukura · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gicumbi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marines · 0-4 (L)
Marines
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs APR · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Kigali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Muhanga · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Musanze · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Etincelles · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Mukura | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Gorilla | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Sunrise | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Marines | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Amagaju | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Police | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Gasogi United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.