Bukovyna Stadium · Referee V. Novokhatny · Analysis updated 16:13 UTC
Bukovyna vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Bukovyna and 1.97 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Dynamo Kyiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dynamo Kyiv win
66.6% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bukovyna home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dynamo Kyiv away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 13% / 21% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Bukovyna and 1.97 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 0–213.0%
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–38.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.90 | 31.7% | 33.4% | 2.99 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 7.80 | 11.6% | 12.9% | 7.75 | +1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 43.5% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.33 | 70.6% | 71.4% | 1.40 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.90 | 49.3% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.36 | 66.7% | 66.6% | 1.50 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.7% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 79.9% | 79.5% | 1.26 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.20 | 29.4% | 28.6% | 3.50 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.6% | 20.5% | 4.88 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.62 | 56.5% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -1.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.04 | 88.4% | 87.1% | 1.15 | -1.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bukovyna
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polessya · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Kharkiv · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)
Dynamo Kyiv
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zorya Luhansk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Vinnytsya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Veres Rivne | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Chornomorets | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dynamo Kyiv win, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.