Bukovyna vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Bukovyna and 0.63 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Bukovyna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bukovyna win

49.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.19 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bukovyna home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Obolon'-Brovar away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bukovyna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 31% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Bukovyna and 0.63 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Bukovyna win50%

Draw31%

Obolon'-Brovar win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–019.2%
0–016.0%
1–112.2%
2–011.5%
0–110.2%

Recent form

Bukovyna

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polessya · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Kharkiv · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)

Obolon'-Brovar

2026-09-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Chornomorets · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs LNZ Cherkasy · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Kharkiv · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-28T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karpaty · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	7	0	1	14	21
2	Polessya	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Dynamo Kyiv	7	5	1	1	5	16
4	FC Kharkiv	7	5	0	2	9	15
5	Karpaty	8	4	2	2	9	14
6	Zorya Luhansk	8	3	2	3	-2	11
7	LNZ Cherkasy	8	3	2	3	-2	11
8	Veres Rivne	9	2	3	4	-5	9
9	Kolos Kovalivka	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Bukovyna	8	1	5	2	-2	8
11	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	2	2	4	-3	8
12	Livyi Bereh	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	1	4	3	-8	7
14	Chornomorets	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	Kryvbas KR	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Kudrivka	8	0	2	6	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bukovyna win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.