· Analysis updated 05:44 UTC
Bula vs South Island United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Bula and 1.45 for South Island United, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Bula the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bula win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bula home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
South Island United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bula to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Bula and 1.45 for South Island United, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.5%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Bula
- 2026-05-17T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-12T03:00:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-09T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Auckland FC 2 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-06T03:00:00.000Z · H vs South Island United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-18T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland FC 2 · 2-1 (W)
South Island United
- 2026-05-20T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Auckland FC 2 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-12T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland FC 2 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-05-09T06:30:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-06T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Bula · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-21T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland FC 2 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
OFC Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Melbourne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Hekari United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Auckland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Vanuatu United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Bula | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | South Island United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Tahiti United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Solomon Kings | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bula win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.