Hristo Botev Stadium · Referee Ioannis Papadopoulos, Greece · Analysis updated 10:15 UTC
Bulgaria vs Montenegro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Bulgaria and 1.72 for Montenegro, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Bulgaria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bulgaria home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Montenegro away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bulgaria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Bulgaria and 1.72 for Montenegro, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.3%
Recent form
Bulgaria
- 2026-06-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Moldova · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Montenegro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-27T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Solomon Islands · 10-2 (W)
- 2025-11-18T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Georgia · 2-1 (W)
Montenegro
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Armenia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cyprus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovakia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulgaria · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovenia · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.