Milliy Stadium · Referee A. Nazhafaliev · Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Bunyodkor vs Pakhtakor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Bunyodkor and 1.68 for Pakhtakor, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Pakhtakor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pakhtakor win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bunyodkor home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pakhtakor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.1%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Bunyodkor
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Buxoro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-4 (L)
Pakhtakor
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Samarqand · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hussein · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · Bunyodkor 0-1 Pakhtakor (Super League)
- 2025-11-03T13:30:00.000Z · Bunyodkor 2-4 Pakhtakor (Super League)
- 2025-06-14T15:00:00.000Z · Bunyodkor 1-1 Pakhtakor (Super League)
- 2024-11-30T10:00:00.000Z · Bunyodkor 2-0 Pakhtakor (Super League)
- 2024-08-15T14:30:00.000Z · Bunyodkor 0-1 Pakhtakor (Cup)
- 2024-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · Bunyodkor 0-1 Pakhtakor (Super League)
- 2023-12-01T12:15:00.000Z · Bunyodkor 3-2 Pakhtakor (Super League)
- 2023-06-25T15:00:00.000Z · Bunyodkor 1-2 Pakhtakor (Super League)
- 2022-11-12T12:00:00.000Z · Bunyodkor 0-2 Pakhtakor (Super League)
- 2022-06-29T15:00:00.000Z · Bunyodkor 3-2 Pakhtakor (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 19 | 49 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 44 |
| 4 | Olmaliq | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 35 |
| 5 | Lokomotiv | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 35 |
| 6 | Nasaf | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 34 |
| 7 | Buxoro | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 34 |
| 8 | Andijan | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Dinamo Samarqand | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -7 | 29 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -14 | 22 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Kokand-1912 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -11 | 20 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 22 | 1 | 1 | 20 | -33 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pakhtakor win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.