· Analysis updated 06:13 UTC
Buochs vs FC Luzern Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Buochs and 1.60 for FC Luzern, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Buochs the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Buochs win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Buochs home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Luzern away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Buochs to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Buochs and 1.60 for FC Luzern, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.7%
Recent form
Buochs
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widnau · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Delémont · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Langenthal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Wohlen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Grasshopper II · 1-0 (W)
FC Luzern
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshoppers · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Basel 1893 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BSC Young Boys · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Buochs win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.