· Analysis updated 09:52 UTC
Burgan vs Shamiya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Burgan and 0.95 for Shamiya, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Burgan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Burgan win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shamiya away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Burgan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Burgan and 0.95 for Shamiya, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.8%
- 2–010.5%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.8%
Recent form
Burgan
Shamiya
- 2026-10-24T14:35:00.000Z · H vs Yarmouk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Jazira · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-08T14:50:00.000Z · H vs Ittihad Al-Shorta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Khaitan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Burgan · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Burgan win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.