· Analysis updated 17:34 UTC
Burgess Hill Town vs Dulwich Hamlet Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Burgess Hill Town and 1.45 for Dulwich Hamlet, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Burgess Hill Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Burgess Hill Town win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burgess Hill Town home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dulwich Hamlet away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Burgess Hill Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Burgess Hill Town and 1.45 for Dulwich Hamlet, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.4%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Burgess Hill Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maldon & Tiptree · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Winslow United · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanwell Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Jersey Bulls · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ramsgate · 2-2 (D)
Dulwich Hamlet
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Enfield Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salisbury · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aveley · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hastings United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Welling United · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Isthmian table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Welling United | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Lewes | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Chatham Town | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Dartford | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Ramsgate | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Eastbourne Borough | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 22 |
| 8 | Carshalton Athletic | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 9 | Burgess Hill Town | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Wingate & Finchley | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | Dulwich Hamlet | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | St Albans City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 13 | Leatherhead | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | Whyteleafe | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Cheshunt | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 | Aveley | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -17 | 14 |
| 18 | Cray Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 19 | Brentwood Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 9 |
| 21 | Stanway Rovers | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 7 |
| 22 | Whitehawk | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Burgess Hill Town win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.