· Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Burgess Hill Town vs Jersey Bulls Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Burgess Hill Town and 1.53 for Jersey Bulls, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives Burgess Hill Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burgess Hill Town home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jersey Bulls away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Burgess Hill Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Burgess Hill Town and 1.53 for Jersey Bulls, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.1%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Burgess Hill Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maldon & Tiptree · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Winslow United · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanwell Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Jersey Bulls · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ramsgate · 2-2 (D)
Jersey Bulls
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Burgess Hill Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Burgess Hill Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hastings United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Deal Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beckenham Town · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.