Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for Burgos and 0.80 for AD Ceuta FC, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Burgos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Burgos win

68.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.17 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Burgos home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AD Ceuta FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Burgos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 19% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.17 goals for Burgos and 0.80 for AD Ceuta FC, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Burgos win69%

Draw19%

AD Ceuta FC win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

2–012.1%
1–011.1%
2–19.7%
1–18.9%
3–08.8%

Recent form

Burgos

2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Granada CF · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Almeria · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas · 2-1 (W)

AD Ceuta FC

2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Castellón · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Valladolid · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Castellón	11	8	2	1	18	26
2	Almeria	11	8	1	2	13	25
3	Eibar	11	7	1	3	7	22
4	Girona	11	6	3	2	12	21
5	Granada CF	11	6	2	3	4	20
6	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	7	19
7	Sporting Gijon	11	6	1	4	-2	19
8	Oviedo	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Burgos	10	5	2	3	3	17
10	Sabadell	11	4	5	2	2	17
11	Cordoba	11	5	0	6	-3	15
12	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	-2	14
13	Eldense	11	4	2	5	-2	14
14	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	-5	14
15	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	0	12
16	Celta de Vigo II	11	3	3	5	-5	12
17	Leganes	11	3	3	5	-9	12
18	Cadiz	11	2	4	5	0	10
19	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	-4	10
20	Real Sociedad II	11	2	2	7	-8	8
21	AD Ceuta FC	11	1	2	8	-15	5
22	Albacete	11	1	1	9	-14	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Burgos win, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.