· Analysis updated 01:19 UTC
Burgos vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Burgos and 2.45 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Athletic Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Athletic Club win
71.4% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burgos home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Athletic Club to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 12% / 17% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Burgos and 2.45 for Athletic Club, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–38.6%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–37.7%
Recent form
Burgos
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Granada CF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Almeria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas · 2-1 (W)
Athletic Club
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Levante · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Athletic Club win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.