· Analysis updated 12:26 UTC
Burgos vs Cultural Leonesa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Burgos and 0.83 for Cultural Leonesa, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Burgos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Burgos win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burgos home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cultural Leonesa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Burgos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 29% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Burgos and 0.83 for Cultural Leonesa, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Burgos
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Granada CF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Almeria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas · 2-1 (W)
Cultural Leonesa
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Getxo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Coria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Extremadura 1924 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Burgos win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.