Chang Arena · Referee J. Phonkaew · Analysis updated 16:12 UTC
Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.01 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Buriram United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Buriram United win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Buriram United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ayutthaya FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Buriram United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Buriram United and 1.01 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.6%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Buriram United
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sisaket United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · H vs DPU Thayang FC · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pattani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayong FC · 3-2 (W)
Ayutthaya FC
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Uthai Thani · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sisaket United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ratchaburi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Port FC · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Buriram United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Prachuap | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sisaket United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | BG Pathum United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Bangkok United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Rayong FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Chiangrai United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Chonburi FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Rasi Salai United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Buriram United win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.