Thammasat Stadium · Referee T. Somsingha · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Buriram United vs Prachuap Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.95 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Buriram United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Buriram United win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Buriram United home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Prachuap away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Buriram United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Buriram United and 0.95 for Prachuap, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–19.1%
Recent form
Buriram United
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chonburi FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiangrai United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sukhothai FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs BG Pathum United · 3-0 (W)
Prachuap
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Pattani · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sukhothai FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayong FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lamphun Warrior · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Buriram United win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.