Chang Arena · Analysis updated 04:49 UTC
Buriram United vs Sisaket United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.74 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Buriram United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Buriram United win
75.1% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Buriram United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sisaket United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Buriram United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 16% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Buriram United and 0.74 for Sisaket United, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.3%
- 3–010.1%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.6%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.00 | 23.8% | 24.9% | 4.02 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 10.00 | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.87 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 90.6% | 90.8% | 1.10 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.80 | 15.6% | 15.7% | 6.37 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 47.8% | 47.8% | 2.09 | -0.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.75 | 52.2% | 52.2% | 1.92 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.20 | 75.4% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 85.7% | 84.3% | 1.19 | -1.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Buriram United
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sisaket United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · H vs DPU Thayang FC · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pattani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayong FC · 3-2 (W)
Sisaket United
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-21T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Dome · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BG Pathum United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Chonburi FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiangrai United · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · Buriram United 2-3 Sisaket United (Thai League 1)
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Prachuap | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Buriram United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Ayutthaya FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Bangkok United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Sisaket United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | BG Pathum United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Sukhothai FC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Rayong FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Chiangrai United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 15 | Chonburi FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Rasi Salai United | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Buriram United win, at 75.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.