Ron Joyce Stadium · Analysis updated 11:07 UTC
Burlington vs Woodbridge Strikers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Burlington and 1.60 for Woodbridge Strikers, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Woodbridge Strikers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Woodbridge Strikers win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burlington home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Woodbridge Strikers away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Woodbridge Strikers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 22% / 25% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Burlington and 1.60 for Woodbridge Strikers, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.8%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Burlington
- 2025-08-24T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaughan Azzurri · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-08-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaughan Azzurri · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs North Toronto Nitros · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-07-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs North Toronto Nitros · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-07-24T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Woodbridge Strikers · 0-4 (L)
Woodbridge Strikers
- 2026-05-08T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-08-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC London · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-08-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Scrosoppi · 3-4 (L)
- 2025-08-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs FC London · 7-1 (W)
- 2025-08-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaughan Azzurri · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League 1 Ontario table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Woodbridge Strikers | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 43 |
| 2 | Scrosoppi | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 41 |
| 3 | Alliance United | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Simcoe County Rovers | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Vaughan Azzurri | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 29 |
| 6 | Blue Devils | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 29 |
| 7 | St. Catharines Wolves | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 28 |
| 8 | Sigma | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -9 | 24 |
| 9 | Burlington | 20 | 8 | 0 | 12 | -9 | 24 |
| 10 | North Toronto Nitros | 20 | 5 | 2 | 13 | -27 | 17 |
| 11 | FC London | 20 | 2 | 2 | 16 | -34 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Woodbridge Strikers win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.