· Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Burnley U21 vs Colchester United U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Burnley U21 and 2.10 for Colchester United U21, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives Colchester United U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burnley U21 home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Colchester United U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colchester United U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 37% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Burnley U21 and 2.10 for Colchester United U21, a combined 4.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–35.2%
Recent form
Burnley U21
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fulham U21 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs West Bromwich Albion U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 0-2 (L)
Colchester United U21
- 2026-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea City U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry City U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Wednesday U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barnsley U21 · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.