Turf Moor · Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Burnley vs Birmingham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Burnley and 1.50 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Birmingham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burnley home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Birmingham away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Birmingham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Burnley and 1.50 for Birmingham, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.4%
Recent form
Burnley
- 2026-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Charlton · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 1-3 (L)
Birmingham
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Wolves | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 16 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 14 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 9 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.