Turf Moor · Referee Steve Martin, England · Analysis updated 21:48 UTC
Burnley vs Derby Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Burnley and 0.89 for Derby, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Burnley the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Burnley win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burnley home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Derby away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 54.8% vs market 45.3%, edge +9.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 54.8% | 1.82 | +9.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 48.7% | 49.6% | 2.02 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 50.2% | 50.5% | 1.98 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.5% | 26.6% | 3.76 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.6% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 23.2% | 23.0% | 4.35 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.8% | 77.1% | 1.30 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 45.2% | 2.21 | -9.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Burnley
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 1-2 (L)
Derby
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs West Brom · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Burnley 1-1 Derby (Championship)
- 2025-08-26T18:45:00.000Z · Burnley 2-1 Derby (League Cup)
- 2025-04-08T18:45:00.000Z · Burnley 0-0 Derby (Championship)
- 2024-12-10T19:45:00.000Z · Burnley 0-0 Derby (Championship)
- 2016-01-25T19:45:00.000Z · Burnley 4-1 Derby (Championship)
- 2015-09-21T18:45:00.000Z · Burnley 0-0 Derby (Championship)
- 2014-03-01T15:00:00.000Z · Burnley 2-0 Derby (Championship)
- 2013-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Burnley 3-0 Derby (Championship)
- 2012-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Burnley 2-0 Derby (Championship)
- 2012-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · Burnley 2-1 Derby (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Burnley win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.