Turf Moor · Referee Josh Smith, England · Analysis updated 16:56 UTC
Burnley vs West Ham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Burnley and 2.67 for West Ham, a combined total of 4.14. That distribution gives West Ham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
West Ham win
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 2.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burnley home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
West Ham away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–37.4%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–26.1%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
Burnley
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Charlton · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-1 (D)
West Ham
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · Burnley 2-2 West Ham (Championship)
- 2026-02-07T15:00:00.000Z · Burnley 0-2 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2025-11-08T15:00:00.000Z · Burnley 2-3 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2024-03-10T14:00:00.000Z · Burnley 2-2 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · Burnley 1-2 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2022-04-17T13:15:00.000Z · Burnley 1-1 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2021-12-12T14:00:00.000Z · Burnley 0-0 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2021-05-03T19:15:00.000Z · Burnley 1-2 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2021-01-16T15:00:00.000Z · Burnley 0-1 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2020-07-08T17:00:00.000Z · Burnley 1-0 West Ham (Premier League)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Southampton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 20 | Norwich | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is West Ham win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.