Turf Moor · Analysis updated 21:47 UTC
Burnley vs Wrexham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Burnley and 1.50 for Wrexham, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Burnley the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burnley home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Wrexham away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Burnley to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Burnley and 1.50 for Wrexham, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Burnley
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 1-2 (L)
Wrexham
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.