Lancashire County Ground · Analysis updated 17:42 UTC
Burnley W vs Blackburn Rovers W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.98 expected goals for Burnley W and 0.91 for Blackburn Rovers W, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Burnley W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Burnley W win
78.8% probability
Expected goals
2.98 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burnley W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Blackburn Rovers W away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Burnley W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 13% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.98 goals for Burnley W and 0.91 for Blackburn Rovers W, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.1%
- 3–09.0%
- 2–18.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 4–06.7%
Recent form
Burnley W
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Wolverhampton W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Watford W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-01-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United W · 0-5 (L)
Blackburn Rovers W
- 2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley W · 0-12 (L)
- 2025-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United W · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Portsmouth W · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-04-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield United W · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-04-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle United W · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Burnley W win, at 78.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.