Camp de Futbol Joan B. Planelles · Referee Francesc Bañó · Analysis updated 12:47 UTC
Burriana vs Acero Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Burriana and 1.33 for Acero, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Acero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burriana home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Acero away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Acero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 31% / 27% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Burriana and 1.33 for Acero, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–28.6%
Recent form
Burriana
- 2024-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Patacona · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-05-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jove Español · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-05-01T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Gandía · 0-5 (L)
- 2024-04-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Soneja · 2-2 (D)
- 2024-04-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón II · 1-4 (L)
Acero
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Torrent · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Eldense B · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atzeneta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrellano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jove Español · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Levante II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Vall de Uxó | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Acero | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Torrent | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Eldense B | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Crevillente | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Roda | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Atzeneta | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Saguntino | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Buñol | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC Torrevieja | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | Ontinyent 1931 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Torrellano | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Soneja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Jove Español | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Utiel | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.