Minareli Çavuş Spor Tesisleri · Analysis updated 18:17 UTC
Bursa Yıldırımspor vs Galata Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Bursa Yıldırımspor and 0.80 for Galata, a combined total of 2.24. That distribution gives Bursa Yıldırımspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bursa Yıldırımspor win
52.2% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bursa Yıldırımspor home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Galata away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bursa Yıldırımspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 27% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Bursa Yıldırımspor and 0.80 for Galata, a combined 2.24 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–011.1%
- 0–010.7%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Bursa Yıldırımspor
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alanya 1221 FK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Amasyaspor 1968 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Bucaspor 1928 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nilüfer Belediye · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Karsiyaka · 2-2 (D)
Galata
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Çankaya FK · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kestel Çilek · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Beykoz İshaklıspor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Pazarspor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Galata | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Orduspor 1967 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | İnkılapspor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Düzcespor | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Beykoz Anadolu | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Gölcükspor | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Silivrispor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bursa Yıldırımspor win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.