Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Bursaspor and 0.87 for Mardin 1969, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Bursaspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bursaspor win

53.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.57 – 0.87

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bursaspor home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mardin 1969 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bursaspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Bursaspor and 0.87 for Mardin 1969, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Bursaspor win54%

Draw25%

Mardin 1969 win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.7%
1–111.9%
2–010.7%
2–19.3%
0–08.7%

Recent form

Bursaspor

2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pendikspor · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Muğlaspor · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mardin 1969 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Batman Petrolspor · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Esenler Erokspor · 2-2 (D)

Mardin 1969

2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ümraniyespor · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muş Sport Klübü · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kayserispor	11	8	2	1	17	26
2	Bursaspor	11	8	1	2	13	25
3	Iğdır FK	11	7	2	2	7	23
4	Keçiörengücü	11	5	5	1	10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
7	Antalyaspor	11	6	0	5	0	18
8	Sarıyer	11	4	4	3	-1	16
9	Muğlaspor	11	3	6	2	-1	15
10	Bandırmaspor	11	3	5	3	8	14
11	Bodrum FK	11	3	5	3	3	14
12	Sivasspor	11	2	7	2	1	13
13	Fatih Karagümrük	11	3	4	4	-1	13
14	Esenler Erokspor	11	2	6	3	-3	12
15	Ümraniyespor	10	2	4	4	-1	10
16	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
17	Pendikspor	11	2	4	5	-9	10
18	Vanspor FK	11	2	3	6	-12	7
19	İstanbulspor	11	1	2	8	-17	5
20	Boluspor	10	0	1	9	-19	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bursaspor win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.