Pirelli Stadium · Analysis updated 06:07 UTC
Burton Albion vs Huddersfield Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.49 for Huddersfield, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Huddersfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Huddersfield win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burton Albion home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Huddersfield away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 52.2% vs market 46.4%, edge +5.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.4% | 52.2% | 1.92 | +5.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.6% | 73.8% | 1.36 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 3.80 | 24.2% | 24.3% | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.2% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.85 | 49.6% | 49.5% | 2.02 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.85 | 50.6% | 50.5% | 1.98 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 76.8% | 75.7% | 1.32 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.6% | 47.8% | 2.09 | -5.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Burton Albion
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Plymouth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mansfield Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxford United · 0-3 (L)
Huddersfield
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bromley · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mansfield Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Doncaster · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Notts County · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Oxford United · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-17T15:00:00.000Z · Burton Albion 3-1 Huddersfield (League One)
- 2025-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Burton Albion 0-0 Huddersfield (League One)
- 2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Burton Albion 3-0 Huddersfield (League One)
- 2024-12-29T15:00:00.000Z · Burton Albion 1-1 Huddersfield (League One)
- 2017-04-01T14:00:00.000Z · Burton Albion 1-0 Huddersfield (Championship)
- 2016-12-13T19:45:00.000Z · Burton Albion 0-1 Huddersfield (Championship)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockport County | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Bradford | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Cambridge United | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Plymouth | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | Sheffield Wednesday | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Reading | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 10 | Leicester | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Leyton Orient | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 13 | Luton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Burton Albion | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 | Wycombe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Blackpool | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 | Notts County | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 19 | Doncaster | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 20 | Milton Keynes Dons | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 21 | Peterborough | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 22 | Barnsley | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 23 | Bromley | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 8 |
| 24 | Wigan | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Huddersfield win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.