Stade Municipal de Berrechid · Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Burundi vs Guinea-Bissau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Burundi and 1.26 for Guinea-Bissau, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Burundi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burundi home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Guinea-Bissau away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Burundi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Burundi and 1.26 for Guinea-Bissau, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Burundi
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Togo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-03-31T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chad · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-03-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chad · 4-0 (W)
Guinea-Bissau
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nigeria · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tanzania · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Burkina Faso · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Burkina Faso · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.