Bury Town vs Kettering Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Bury Town and 1.50 for Kettering Town, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Kettering Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bury Town home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kettering Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 25% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Bury Town and 1.50 for Kettering Town, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Bury Town win34%

Draw25%

Kettering Town win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.7%
1–28.8%
0–18.7%
2–17.9%
1–07.8%

Recent form

Bury Town

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hitchin Town · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Real Bedford · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stourbridge · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvechurch · 1-0 (W)

Kettering Town

2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Leiston · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Halesowen Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Worcester City · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Anstey Nomads · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Bury Town 0-1 Kettering Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Bury Town 3-3 Kettering Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)

Non League Premier - Southern Central table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Bedford	13	10	2	1	21	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	4	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	8	3	1	10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	9	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	6	4	2	13	22
8	Alvechurch	12	6	4	2	12	22
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	5	2	4	-3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	-2	16
13	Redditch United	11	3	5	3	1	14
14	Hitchin Town	14	3	4	7	-4	13
15	Bishop's Stortford	13	4	1	8	-6	13
16	Banbury United	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Leiston	11	3	3	5	-4	12
18	Stratford Town	13	2	6	5	-8	12
19	Leamington	13	2	4	7	-6	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	-8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	-13	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	-32	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.